Copper Market in a Surplus

(MTLEX) World refined copper balance for the first five months of 2018 indicates a surplus of about 20,000 t: In developing its global market balance, ICSG uses an apparent demand calculation for China that does not take into account changes in unreported stocks [State Reserve Bureau (SRB), producer, consumer, merchant/trader, bonded]. To facilitate global market analysis, however, an additional line item—Refined World Balance Adjusted for Chinese Bonded Stock Changes—is included in the attached table that adjusts the world refined copper balance based on an average estimate of changes in unreported inventories provided by three consultants with expertise in China’s copper market. In the first five months of 2018, the world refined copper balance adjusted for changes in Chinese bonded stocks indicated a market surplus of around 25,000 t.